Author: Wintermute Ventures (@wmt_ventures)
Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow
Deep Tide Guide: The Wintermute Ventures team attended the Hong Kong Consensus and wrote this observation report, providing a market sentiment scan from a market maker's perspective. Market cooling is already a consensus, but the value of this article lies in its explanation of why—narrative failure, token identity crisis, capital rotation into AI stocks—these signals together point not to a short-term bear market but to a recalibration of the industry paradigm.
The Wintermute Ventures team returned from the Hong Kong Consensus, where the most consistent signal was: market sentiment is turning cautious, and almost no one is willing to pretend they know where the next obvious wave is. The good news is that conversations have become more specific, making it easier to distinguish between real signals and cyclical narratives.
What We Heard
Sentiment is down, clear catalysts are hard to find
Most people do not see obvious near-term catalysts that could reverse sentiment, and many investors struggle to identify where the next major crypto-native wave will come from—beyond a few obvious areas. Founders are feeling this shift. Several founders mentioned they wish they had raised funds earlier, as the bar is now higher, and investors need to see more traction before committing.
Signs of capital rotation into AI stocks are evident, especially in Asia
Many "liquid funds" are actually family offices and proprietary capital, rather than strictly mandated fund capital. This type of capital has placed momentum bets on AI, with public AI stocks becoming the default new trading target. However, this appears more like momentum behavior rather than a fundamental shift in crypto investment logic.
Outside of mainstream assets, tokens face an identity crisis
Beyond major assets, almost no one is excited about altcoins. The deeper issue is that tokens have lost their clear identity as credible value accumulation and incentive alignment mechanisms. Token issuance is increasingly seen as a distraction, as mercenary farmers are noisy and churn quickly, making it difficult to convey lasting value or alignment signals. A common direction discussed among founders is: stop copying old playbooks and instead design for real users and long-term alignment.
Opportunities focus on fundamentals and defensibility
The market clearly favors businesses with revenue, licenses, and distribution moats. Many still believe that crypto startups can deliver 10x better returns than traditional tech, as traditional tech has become slower and more consensus-driven. At the same time, standing out in crowded sectors is increasingly difficult: yield-wrapping products are widely considered saturated and hard to differentiate; prediction markets still see new entrants but lack new differentiation; options markets remain interesting, but many believe the infrastructure and edge dynamics are not yet ready.
Latin America repeatedly mentioned as an attractive region
Latin America has achieved clear product-market fit and is moving toward stricter regulation. The winners will be teams that can navigate regulatory rules country by country and replace traditional banking rails. This sector is already crowded, and differentiation is no longer just about stablecoins but a combination of regulatory capability, connectivity, and execution.
Despite weakening sentiment, people have not given up on crypto. Expectations have simply been raised. Investors now demand real evidence (naturally self-correcting). Founders are under pressure to focus on distribution and acquiring real users. Tokens face stricter scrutiny for value capture and incentive alignment. From Wintermute Ventures' perspective, we remain optimistic. These resets, though difficult, are healthy—this is when the most resilient companies, led by teams with genuine long-term conviction, are forged.
